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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Several concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He stated that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept troops from Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. A key demand involves Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a free economic zone might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.